Foreign Office Advised Regarding Military Action to Topple Zimbabwe's Leader

Newly disclosed documents show that the UK's diplomatic corps advised against British military intervention to remove the former Zimbabwean president, the long-serving leader, in 2004, advising it was not considered a "serious option".

Policy Papers Show Deliberations on Handling a "Remarkably Robust" Dictator

Policy papers from the then Prime Minister's government indicate officials weighed up options on how best to deal with the "remarkably robust" 80-year-old leader, who declined to leave office as the country descended into violence and economic chaos.

Following the ruling party winning a 2005 election, and a year after the UK joined a US-led coalition to overthrow Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, No 10 asked the Foreign Office in July 2004 to develop potential options.

Policy of Isolation Deemed Not Working

Diplomats concluded that the UK's strategy to isolate Mugabe and forging an international agreement for change was failing, having failed to secure support from influential African states, notably the then South African president, the South African leader.

Courses considered in the documents included:

• "Attempt to remove Mugabe by force";
• "Go for tougher UK measures" such as seizing finances and shuttering the UK embassy; or
• "Re-open dialogue", the approach advocated by the then outgoing ambassador to Zimbabwe.

"Our experience shows from Afghanistan, Iraq and Yugoslavia that changing a government and/or its bad policies is exceedingly difficult from the outside."

The FCO paper rejected military action as not a "serious option," adding that "The only candidate for leading such a armed intervention is the UK. No one else (even the US) would be prepared to do so".

Cautionary Notes of Significant Losses and Jurisdictional Barriers

It warned that military intervention would result in significant losses and have "serious consequences" for British people in Zimbabwe.

"Short of a major humanitarian and political disaster – resulting in massive violence, large-scale refugee flows, and instability in the region – we judge that no nation in Africa would agree to any attempts to remove Mugabe forcibly."

The document continues: "Nor do we judge that any other international ally (including the US) would authorise or join military intervention. And there would be no jurisdictional basis for doing so, without an authorising Security Council Resolution, which we would fail to obtain."

Playing the Longer Game Recommended

Blair's foreign policy adviser, a senior official, warned him that Zimbabwe "will be a significant obstacle" to his plan to use the UK's presidency of the G8 to make 2005 "the year of Africa". Lee concluded that as military action had been discounted, "it is likely necessary that we must adopt a long-term strategy" and re-engage with Mugabe.

Blair seemed to concur, noting: "We must devise a way of exposing the lies and malpractice of Mugabe and Zanu-PF up to this election and then afterwards, we could attempt to restart dialogue on the basis of a firm agreement."

The then outgoing ambassador, in his valedictory telegram, had recommended cautious renewed contact with Mugabe, though he understood the Prime Minister "might shudder at the thought given all that Mugabe has uttered and perpetrated".

The Zimbabwean leader was ultimately removed in a 2017 coup, aged 93. Previous claims that in the early 2000s Blair had tried to pressure Thabo Mbeki into joining a military coalition to overthrow Mugabe were strongly denied by the former UK premier.